Bitcoin (BTC), which hit new weekly lows on Sept. 28, as the risk asset drawdown continued overnight, fell to new levels.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle charts (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Trader: “First new Lows” Before Q4 Recovery
Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data showed that BTC/USD fell to $18,461 via Bitstamp, almost $2,000 less than the previous day’s high.
Stocks changed direction in lockstep after initially moving slightly higher at Wall Street open.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index ended the day with 0.25% and 0.25% respectively, respectively.
Crypto failed to recover its losses and traders bet on the pain continuing to grow.
Popular Twitter account Il Capo from Crypto confirmed that he preferred October copying last years performance, earning it the nickname “Uptober”.
He commented that he expected bullish Q4 and said so in comments. But, first new lows.
Rekt Capital, an analyst and fellow trader, brought attention to the challenges Bitcoin had to overcome in monthly timeframes.
He tweeted, “Already sharp BTC rejection @ the green $19800 Level,” about the next monthly candle close.
As $BTC nears its Monthly Close, there will be continued see-sawing at this level. The most important thing will be the closing of the Monthly Candle relative to the green Range Low.
Annotated chart of BTC/USD Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter
Rekt Capital stated that any close to that line would signal an exit from the current monthly range that has been in place since late 2020.
You can bet on bears bowing out
Discussions about the end of the bear market in 2022 were divided by opinions regarding the use of data from previous halves cycles.
Related: Bitcoin’s wallet is empty after a 10-year hibernation
Luke Martin, host and co-host of STACKS Podcast, uploaded a comparative chart. He noted that it had been 322 day since Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $69,000.
BTC/USD was in a bear market for 364 days after the 2017 all-time high. This suggests that history could repeat itself.
Charles Edwards, the creator of Capriole, said, “Cycle timing is here optimal.”
Others weren’t convinced. Tedtalksmacro pointed out that 2018 was a different macro environment. Martin also acknowledged this.
BTC/USD chart annotated Source: Luke Martin/Twitter
Cointelegraph reported that the United States Federal Reserve did not make any commitment to stop the rate increases which are putting pressure on crypto and other risk assets this year.
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