The volatility of Bitcoin (BTC), edged up during Sept. 26, as Wall Street closed without causing significant losses.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle charts (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
BTC price to rise with monthly close
TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro data showed that BTC/USD was at $19,000 per day with hourly candles of 1.5% to 2%.
It was expected that the pair would break out of its narrow trading range, which has been in place since Sept. 22, after having consolidated.
Michael van de Poppe is the founder and CEO at trading firm Eight. A tap on the area at the top should indicate a continuation higher.
He told his Twitter followers that the theory still holds for Bitcoin.
“Crucial area at $18.6K is for support. We’ve tested it multiple times. We’ll soon be testing the $19.4K-19.5K region again. This will most likely give rise to the upside. I am targeting $22.5K and $20K.
Material Indicators, an on-chain analytics resource, agreed upon volatility returning.
BTC trades within a narrow range. It stated that volatility will rise as the week progresses towards the Monthly Close. This coincides with the expiry of Monthly and Quarterly Options.
Technical resistance will be at the key MAs if bulls manage to close above $20k with a green M.
Josh Rager, a fellow analyst and trader, suggested that BTC/USD could continue its upward trend from the first half 2019.
He tweeted, “Uncertain if Bitcoin has reached a bottom but if $BTC prices start rising to $24k+, then I’ll definitely be paying attention.”
“It’s not like history will repeat itself, but April ’19 caught most people off guard.”
Rager acknowledged that this year’s macroeconomic environment was different from 2019.
Screenshot of BTC/USD monthly returns chart Source: Coinglass
Dollar strength is at its best year ever
The macro topic is that US equities stabilized at the Sept. 26 Wall Street Open, which helped highly-correlated crypto avoid downside volatility.
Related: “The bond market bubble burst” — 5 things you need to know about Bitcoin this week
S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.65% and 0.35% respectively on the day.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), despite having only slightly retraced after hitting 114.52 — its highest level since May of that year, looked poised to challenge its recent twenty-year highs.
2022 was the most successful year for DXY. It is up 18% from Jan. 1.
Caleb Franzen (senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics), noted that the 52-week percent change is +21.3%. This is the highest rate since Q2 2015.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-month candle chart. Source: TradingView “The trend will stabilize and the RoC will normalize but that doesn’t necessitate an increase in the $DXY.” You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.