Bitcoin (BTC), which pierced the top end of a stubborn trading range, on Aug. 11, as a decidedly unorthodox rally took control of risk assets.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle charts (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Warnings about Bitcoin retracement intensify at $25,000
Data from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro showed that BTC/USD hit highs of $24,750 via Bitstamp. This is its highest performance since June 13.
Although the pair attempted to break through to the top of their range several times in previous weeks, they all failed due to stiff selling pressure.
The release of new US inflation data this week was a catalyst for change. However, Bitcoin and other altcoins rose in tandem with equities as July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI print) suggested that inflation has peaked.
The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index both gained 2.1% and 1.9% on Aug. 10, the day after the release. The daily candle for BTC/USD was around $900.
Market commentators weren’t content to exaggerate the optimism. Raoul Pal, an investor, noted that sentiment was treating the post-CPI rally like a black sheep.
He told his Twitter followers that this was “one of the most hated rallies” he’d seen in many years.
Pal maintained that there was still a chance that equity markets would have seen their lowest in June.
Popular analyst Il Capo, who forecasted a major shift in crypto’s tune, held steady at $25,500 as his maximum target prior to a new downtrend.
It’s almost there. https://t.co/oJFpD5BVz9 pic.twitter.com/2pjpUgw85T
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) August 11, 2022
“$BTC pump almost 40%. Huge Possibility, Retrace Coming. Jibon, another account, continued with additional Twitter comments: “Buy The Dip.”
A little more optimistic Crypto Tony said that hodlers would enjoy a “treat” if the range high holds.
BTCfuel pointed out that there are potential parallels between the Bitcoin chart in March 2020 and the Bitcoin chart now.
The current setup is very similar to the #Bitcoin March 2020 Bull Trap and Crash. Bitcoin looks like breaking out right now pic.twitter.com/WkITQ2G7py
— BTCfuel (@BTCfuel) August 10, 2022
Doubts over Ethereum rally
After ETH/USD gained more than 11%, the impressive performance of altcoins put Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, firmly in the spotlight.
Related: Bitcoin dominance falls to 6-month lows after metric declares new “alt season”
The pair gained more on the day, surpassing $1,900 for first time since June 6, and is now close to the psychologically significant $2,000 mark.
CPI momentum was added to an already exuberant Ethereum market with the Goerli merge — a key preparatory stage for the full Merge event on September — concluding smoothly.
“Since the beginning of the bear market rally in June, Ethereum has been gaining dominance relative to Bitcoin in terms of trading volume.” “In the last few days, Ethereum has even crossed,” Maartuun (a contributing analyst at CryptoQuant’s on-chain data platform CryptoQuant) wrote in a blog entry on Aug. 10.
Maartuun warned that history did not support a sustained rally in crypto, even if it was led by ETH.
“It is evident that Ethereum is very popular in exchanges because of its gaining dominance. He explained that this makes sense due to the upcoming 2.0 merger.
“However, my 5-years experience in cryptomarket shows that rallies led by Ethereum are not always the best for the market. You can see in my analysis that I am very conservative. Particularly since Ethereum has already moved > 100% from its lows.
1 Day Candle Chart ETH/USD (Binance). Source: TradingViewcom. You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.